The Ethereum / Bitcoin pair seems to be in the midst of its seasonal trend…for now. If the Bitcoin bear market proves too strong then it will suffer and follow Bitcoin lower.
The ETHBTC 1D chart should be making the blue box formation now. The break in direction out of that blue box has been the “set up” trade versus the December 6th “knife catch” trade the past few years.
The 1W chart shows much of the same. In this one we are also taking note of the momentum as it is also making the same pattern as previous years. If ETHBTC can get a 50 to 100 day trend then the first hedging opportunity is: the close after the blue bar prints on the weekly.
It seems like the blue box on the daily should coincide with the weekly momentum reaching overbought. That confirms the view that the break in direction will form a new trend. That being bearish until it is oversold again, or bullish until the blue bar prints, and then reevaluate the market conditions.