Happy Equinox, aka first day of Spring. It might sound like a silly day to make a post about, however equinox is often associated with a trend change.

If a market is stuck sideways it might pick a direction. If a market is trending up it may correct for a bit. It certainly does not play out all the time, but it has provided some noteworthy results in the past. Below is Bitcoin with the Autumn and Spring equinoxes marked with a dotted vertical line.

This chart is so hype, I can’t believe it has not blasted off the launchpad yet. Stellar (STR on Poloniex and XLM on Bittrex) seems to be destine for about a doubling in price to somewhere around 1000sats where it will meet a convergence of trend lines and horizontal resistance. If that level can be broken, which it seems like it eventually will, the upside is staggering.

If you have missed out on ETH and other large bull markets I think Stellar is in the same situation that I identified in the CANN article. That being it’s an established coin with many sizable moves and it is still undervalued against it’s historical chart in an time when everything of quality is moving up.

The MACD and other momentum indicators look very strong, the buy volume has been strong with little rise in price, and the FIB tool extension above the 1000sat mark is promising. My guess is that first resistance will be at around 1000 with a breakout target near 2000, current price is a bit over 500.

Interesting movements in the BTC-e altcoin world. LTC/BTC and NVC/BTC (see charts above) are moving fairly close together. Meanwhile PPC/BTC and NMC/BTC (see charts below) are moving fairly close together. In fact all 4 charts have the same general approach to them at this time. Currently none of the charts are bullish.

Since the price has crossed under the EMA’s it is likely the move that seems to be looming upwards will be a throwback to the EMA before going down again. The LTC/USD pair on BTC-e did print a reversal signal 2 days ago. Even though the other 3 have not printed a reversal the fact that they all move together is important. Uses LTC as the main signal and if it starts to move then it becomes worth playing the rest of them too.

Charts are powered by the SCMR Trends Analysis Suite on Tradingview.com

I had noticed some interesting patterns in the Oil price vs the NDP support the other day so I went rooting around for other correlations. As it turns out there are many, but none as telling as the CAD/USD exchange rate. America has the DXY to monitor the strength of the US Dollar. However here in Canada we mainly us the USD exchange rate as a benchmark of value. It is in this currency pair that most telling international view of the Canadian election is found.

Though a large range the 6 weeks lead that the NDP started the election with corresponded to a 6week range on the chart. It is not noted on the chart but the low on the 24th was also the peak of NDP support. Next point of interest is the where the number 2 is located. The Conservatives bolted into the lead as the NDP bled support to the Liberals and the clearly international investors were not keen on another Conservative government. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) stayed in a down trend the entire time the Conservatives had the lead. Then as if it was magic the day the Liberals first challenged the lead the CAD put in a low and has been trending up ever since.

It is clear that international investors see new hope with a Liberal government and a majority over a minority would be that much stronger for Canada abroad. Investors were neutral to mildly bearish on the NDP and very bearish on the Conservatives winning again. The world wants to see change in Canada. Normally the CAD/USD is tied to the the price of Oil, but it is clear that in this all important election that the public’s choice of the next leader is having a huge effect on its international image. The election takes place on Oct 19 2015, should see some amazing volatility that day. If the Liberals stay set to win a spike up on the CAD after exit polls are released seems reasonable.

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Happy Canada Day. No trading/charts today, gotta enjoy life a little right? Right! Bitcoin (BTC) is still moving down towards $250 as published yesterday. At a rough glance it could be hitting the first buy zone tomorrow just before close.

LTC seems to be doing what it does best…suck. There is still no sign of bullish potential above 0.007, and that is crucial. The price action in the white box looks a look like the pink box to me. If the wedge breaks it will probably be BTC going up, not LTC going down.

This fractal seems far enough along that it is fair to assume the boundaries of the wedge. A breakout from this wedge would support the price theory we have been focusing on for the past few weeks. Knowing the Crypto market it would be expected that the price break below the support to shake out some longs before a short but significant rise in price. At this point in time guessing a top is hard, but history would suggest $350-400.