ETHEREUM

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Ethereum is in a fairly stable price channel, for now, but…

…can Bitcoin continue to drag Ethereum upwards?

The ETHBTC pair is not doing great at all, but it’s more a function of ETHUSD not going up at the same rate as BTCUSD, rather than ETHUSD selling off, which is encouraging. If ETHUSD continues to be pulled upwards by BTCUSD then USD/Fiat/Cash traders will follow the safe” high cap altcoins like ETH.

How is the price action looking?

Price consolidated in a triangle at the beginning of the year, broke upwards, retested the breakout, then resumed the upward trend in a fashion that has made a clear price channel.

The upside target would be near the upper limits of the channel where there is convergence with the horizontal price level/retail raid starting around $450. Downside will see price action traders rethinking their strategies if the price drops through any of the 3 small red horizontal lines on the right side of the chart.

All of 2019 has the StochRSI resolving at overbought each time it has left oversold. If that trend continues then the possibility of price reaching >$450 is high.

Disclaimer

Tesla Stock Takes a Beating

Tesla Stock Chart, Tradingview, TA
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Tesla (TSLA) Stock Weighing on Elon’s Future Plans

The main thesis of the chart is based on something I have heard a fair amount regarding Tesla, Elon Musk, and debt obligations. Which is that a combination of TSLA stock price near $150 & Elon’s debt serving obligations would force him to sell about 15% of of his shares.

When looking at the chart he probably doesn’t even want to think about that. Unfortunately for him in less than half a year the price has been cut in half and is now in an accelerating selloff into a critical support level.

If this current level breaks there is open air to $140. Bears and Tesla critics would love to spend every dime they can to push that level and crush the company and its founder.

Elon knows this. So there must be great news and/or capital being raised for release asap or else Elon is forced to sell at the break of support so that bears do not break him when he is down another 30% from here.

This is the first time the current level has been tested. Bears are fiesty and they’ll likely been adding to positions. Therefore a short squeeze off this level would not be out of the ordinary.

The deciding factor is Elon himself. If he knows there is minimal capital and news to work with then he has to sell some. If that happens then traders will see it on the chart. Have conditional orders set and ride the short bus down to pound town.

Technical Bounce and/or Short Squeeze Looming?

Price has seen a 50% reduction in half a year into accelerating momentum the last couple weeks. A 50% retrace is a juicy Gann number, as is the previous support level wich has never been tested until now. Cocky Bears often add to positions on the way down, so the possibility of a short squeeze off of support is fairly common the see in an accelerated market.

It is crucial that Elon create some hype and financial support for a bounce or else he will personally feel it. We are essentially betting on his ability to save his own rear end. Good Luck!

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US-congress-seal

Congress to Debate Gold and Silver Income Tax Exemption

 The battle to end taxation of constitutional money has reached the federal level as U.S. Representative Alex Mooney (R-WV) today re-introduced sound money legislation to remove all federal income taxation from gold and silver coins and bullion.

The Monetary Metals Tax Neutrality Act (H.R. 1089) backed by the Sound Money Defense League and free-market activists – would clarify that the sale or exchange of precious metals bullion and coins are not to be included in capital gains, losses, or any other type of federal income calculation.

“My view, which is backed up by language in the U.S. Constitution, is that gold and silver coins are money and are legal tender,” Rep. Mooney said.

“If they’re indeed U.S. money, it seems there should be no taxes on them at all. So, why are we taxing these coins as collectibles?”

Acting unilaterally, Internal Revenue Service bureaucrats have placed gold and silver in the same “collectibles” category as artwork, Beanie Babies, and baseball cards – a classification that subjects the monetary metals to a discriminatorily high long-term capital gains tax rate of 28%.

Sound money activists have long pointed out it is inappropriate to apply any federal income tax, regardless of the rate, against the only kind of money named in the U.S. Constitution. And the IRS has never defended how its position squares up with current law.

Furthermore, the U.S. Mint continuously mints coins of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium and gives each of these coins a legal tender value denominated in U.S. dollars. This formal status as U.S. money further underscores the peculiarity of the IRS’s tax treatment.

A tax neutral measure, the Monetary Metals Tax Neutrality Act states that “no gain or loss shall be recognized on the sale or exchange of (1) gold, silver, platinum, or palladium coins minted and issued by the Secretary at any time or (2), refined gold or silver bullion, coins, bars, rounds, or ingots which are valued primarily based on their metal content and not their form.”

Under current IRS policy, a taxpayer who sells his precious metals may end up with a capital “gain” in terms of Federal Reserve Notes and must pay federal income taxes on this “gain.”

But the capital “gain” is not necessarily a real gain. It is often a nominal gain that simply results from the inflation created by the Federal Reserve and the attendant decline in the Federal Reserve Note dollar’s purchasing power.

Under Rep. Mooney’s bill, precious metals gains and losses would not be included in any calculations of a taxpayer’s federal taxable income.

“Inflation is a regressive tax that especially harms wage earners, savers, and retirees on a fixed income,” said Jp Cortez, policy director at the Sound Money Defense League. “We are encouraged to see legislation targeting the evils of the Federal Reserve System.”

“The IRS does not let taxpayers deduct the staggering capital losses they suffer when holding Federal Reserve Notes over time,” said Stefan Gleason, president of Money Metals Exchange, a precious metals dealer recently named “Best in the USA” by a global industry ratings group.

“So it’s grossly unfair for the IRS to assess a capital gains tax when citizens hold gold and silver to protect them from the Fed’s policy of currency devaluation.”

Source

Xrp, Ripple

Is Ripple Still on Repeat?

Ripple, XRP,

The pattern of price movement on the XRPBTC chart has been on auto-pilot repeat mode for 22months now. Therefore we currently have a VERY simple market view :

Bear: wait for the support to break and short it. Likely to be a short sell for a few months. Bullish tilt would emerge after sideways to play a relief rally.

Bull: long a breakout of resistance. This would also lend itself to the price pattern finally stopping its repetition after almost 2years of easy trades. Bearish tilt would be reactivated under the breakout of resistance.

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Is Ethereum in the Midst of its Seasonal Trend?

The Ethereum / Bitcoin pair seems to be in the midst of its seasonal trend…for now. If the Bitcoin bear market proves too strong then it will suffer and follow Bitcoin lower.

Ehtereum 1Day Chart | 12-30-2018
1-Day Chart

The ETHBTC 1D chart should be making the blue box formation now. The break in direction out of that blue box has been the “set up” trade versus the December 6th “knife catch” trade the past few years.


Ehtereum 1Day Chart | 12-30-2018
1-Week Ethereum

The 1W chart shows much of the same. In this one we are also taking note of the momentum as it is also making the same pattern as previous years. If ETHBTC can get a 50 to 100 day trend then the first hedging opportunity is: the close after the blue bar prints on the weekly.

It seems like the blue box on the daily should coincide with the weekly momentum reaching overbought. That confirms the view that the break in direction will form a new trend. That being bearish until it is oversold again, or bullish until the blue bar prints, and then reevaluate the market conditions.

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Litecoin

Litecoin Chart from 12-18-2018

Not sure what to say about Litecoin other than the bleeding obvious.

  • Lots of similarities in the downwards channel post all time highs. They are relentless in their resistance to upside movements.
  • All buys during accelerated selling events, aka when price goes below support, have turned into a profitable trades.
  • A year and a bit of downtrend is market by a halving event in both cases.

Will history repeat? It usually does in crypto, but if Litecoin does not go up in the Spring of 2019 towards the Summer halving event then that could be viewed as a bad sign for Bitcoin’s next halving.

If history does repeat then buying LTCUSD in the $20’s and selling when the LTCBTC ratio nears 0.018 – 0.019 is a potential trade to keep an eye on.

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Disclaimer

VISA

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Visa is up well over 1000% from its lows during the 2008/9 financial crisis. The chart is a clear parabola and has shifted into top gear.

The corrective phase will begin in an environment of rising rates. This will result in the currently over leveraged public to tighten spending and thus reduce corporate profits. If the credit crunch continues this will lead to defaults and result in another leg down on the chart. How The Fed plays the first major corrective wave in the stock market will determine the health of credit companies, banks, and financial stocks.

The major takeaway from a chart like this is to newer traders is to a) buy the dips in times of major crisis b) average out of a position c) keep a small holding of profits in case the chart goes parabolic. This is exactly what good traders do with altcoins and what you should also do with stocks.

 

 

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Disclosure: The author has no positions open on Visa.

XMR Seasonal Pivot Approaching

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This idea started on my Twitter account and then I added to it. Here it is archived for the blog. As you can see, just like ETH & DASH, XMR has also been bound to certain key dates. It is now time for it to start making it’s seasonal pivot if BTC cooperates as well.

 

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Charts are powered by the SCMR Analysis Suite

BTC Tip-Jar: 18BBg2dhuvxqwoH9u1sVeEwMgMqESAZ79a

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DASH Seasonal Pivot Approaching

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This idea started on my Twitter account and then I added to it. Here it is archived for the blog. As you can see DASH, like ETH, has been bound to certain key dates. It is now time for it to start making its seasonal pivot if BTC price action cooperates.

 

Free Public Telegram Group: https://t.me/joinchat/DBtrr0JbYH1w3DuFkmmvPA

Charts are powered by the SCMR Analysis Suite

BTC Tip-Jar: 18BBg2dhuvxqwoH9u1sVeEwMgMqESAZ79a

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